For over twenty years, cricket rights in India have been a highly sought-after commodity, attracting immense attention regardless of the format or event—be it the World Cup, bilateral series, or the Indian Premier League (IPL). As long as India’s cricket icons are on the field, they draw massive viewership. Advertisers line up eagerly, and media networks scramble to secure broadcasting rights, creating a thriving revenue chain.

However, for the first time in a long while, there’s palpable anxiety among administrators that this lucrative era might be nearing its end. Last month, the Competition Commission of India (CCI) gave the green light to a significant merger between Disney Star, Walt Disney’s Indian unit, and Viacom18, controlled by Reliance Industries. Valued at an astounding $8.5 billion, this is the largest merger in India’s media and entertainment sector.

Collectively, these two networks hold broadcasting rights to every major cricket event in India, including the IPL, ICC world events, and all-format bilateral cricket matches. The previous bidding cycle saw fierce competition between Viacom18 and Disney Star, which led to the IPL’s valuation tripling and World Cup valuations soaring even higher. ICC CCO Anurag Dahiya had remarked at the time, “The best time to find your true value is when there is appropriate competition. If there isn’t, you will flounder.” This statement holds even more weight now. With the next rights renewal cycle approaching in three years, where will the competition come from?

Broadcast revenue is the lifeblood of cricket. “With only 2-3 serious bidders remaining, there’s a high likelihood that cricket property valuations will stagnate or even decline,” said Karan Taurani, a sports business expert. This sentiment is echoed by D&P Advisory’s latest report, which predicts a 10.6% drop in IPL’s enterprise value. “The days of skyrocketing bid prices driven by intense competition may be behind us, casting a shadow over future growth,” noted Santosh N, one of the report’s authors.

A stabilization or decline in IPL valuations would mean reduced profits for franchise owners. A dip in ICC valuations would also be concerning for smaller cricket boards that depend heavily on their share of revenue from the global body. Disney Star has already voiced concerns about its existing $3 billion payout deal, citing various factors. A decline in the value of Indian bilateral matches wouldn’t be surprising given the sport’s shifting focus toward major tournaments.

Rights holders have struggled to increase advertising income to levels that justify their high acquisition costs. The immediate aftermath of the merger might spur a renewed effort to bridge this gap. “This push will likely focus on digital platforms because they need to compensate for the lack of subscription revenue due to free streaming. Additionally, as connected TV adoption grows, it will offer more opportunities than mobile advertising,” explained Taurani.

Despite the upheaval in the media landscape—including the failed Sony-Zee merger—cricket remains well-positioned. A Group M report estimated that 87% of sports industry spending in 2023 came from cricket. Unlike other sports and cricket markets where media rights deals often extend without appreciating in value, Indian cricket valuations haven’t plateaued.

Indian cricket has experienced broadcast monopolies before. Before Viacom18 entered the scene, Star held rights to all major properties with Sony as its only serious competitor. “Sony’s bidding would be disciplined but participatory. We might be returning to that phase,” said an industry executive.

Others are more optimistic. “Sports is the only appointment viewing content and a crucial tool for retaining and expanding viewer bases. For linear broadcasters and digital platforms like Meta and Amazon, investing in sports—especially cricket—may become a strategic necessity. I believe we’ll see a new wave of intense competition for cricket rights,” said Rajesh Sethi, former CEO of Ten Sports.

With increasing digital penetration and falling data costs in smaller towns, there’s room for further growth in digital value. “If the shift moves towards digital platforms, so be it. Whether it’s Netflix, Apple, YouTube, or Meta, I’m confident we’ll see more players entering the field,” IPL chairman Arun Dhumal told HT earlier this year.

The primary obstacle has been a lack of interest from major tech companies in cricket. Meta made a serious bid for IPL rights in 2017 but never returned. The anticipated Reliance-Amazon showdown in the last cycle didn’t materialize either.

In an attempt to diversify revenue streams, IPL tried segmented sales with a new category of limited matches in digital during the last cycle. However, Viacom18 quickly secured these rights to maintain exclusivity. Cricket’s unique country-based calendar leaves limited windows for league cricket; even IPL wraps up in two-and-a-half months.

This evolving landscape suggests that while traditional competition may wane, new forms of rivalry and innovation could emerge in the quest for cricket broadcasting supremacy.